Artificial intelligence is transforming businesses and reshaping the economy. But technological progress and financial success don’t necessarily move together.
For Americans thinking about their savings, that distinction raises an important question: How much of your financial future depends on the AI boom delivering on its promises?
In this episode of America’s Gold Authority Podcast, Philip N. Diehl, 35th Director of the U.S. Mint and President of U.S. Money Reserve, examines the financial pressures behind AI development. He also compares his outlook for gold and stocks through 2030 with a selection of outside forecasts, explaining why he believes diversification deserves renewed attention.
Watch the Podcast Beyond the Boom: The Outlook for AI, Stocks, Bonds, and GoldThe financial question behind the technology
Diehl’s immediate concern is less about what AI might eventually accomplish and more about what it costs to get there.
“Building and operating advanced AI systems requires substantial spending,” Diehl says. “The question is whether the businesses funding that development can generate enough revenue to justify their commitments.”
Competition adds another layer of uncertainty. He points to lower-cost models developed outside the United States as a potential challenge to more expensive American systems. “If less costly alternatives meet businesses’ needs, the companies spending most heavily may face a harder path to profitability,” says Diehl.
That doesn’t mean AI must fail for markets to face disruption. Even a useful technology can produce a difficult financial adjustment when expectations run ahead of earnings.
Your exposure may extend beyond individual technology stocks.
You don’t have to own individual AI stocks to have a stake in the outcome.
Diehl cautions that people holding broad stock index funds may also have meaningful exposure to the companies driving AI development. Owning many stocks does not necessarily mean exposure is spread evenly across industries or economic trends.
His response is to reconsider how different assets work together.
“It’s important to diversify,” Diehl says.
Stocks can continue to play a role in pursuing growth. His argument is that savers should also examine what they own beyond stocks—and how those other holdings might respond if expectations for AI change.
Two scenarios, one reason to consider gold
In the previous episode, Diehl outlined two possible paths through 2030.
In the more favorable scenario, American AI companies endure an economic shakeout before emerging more competitive and profitable. Stocks recover, while gold also rises.
In the more difficult scenario, lower-cost competitors undermine the economics of American AI development, contributing to a deeper stock market decline. Diehl’s model anticipates a stronger rise in gold under those conditions.
These are scenarios, not assured outcomes. Their purpose is to explore how different developments could affect a portfolio.
For Diehl, the common thread is that gold deserves consideration in both environments. Its potential role extends beyond responding to a crisis; he also sees a possible contribution to long-term growth.
What forecasts can (and cannot) tell us
Diehl then compares his scenarios with outside forecasts for gold and the S&P 500 through 2030.
He interprets the forecasts presented in the episode as supporting his view that gold could outperform stocks over that period. But he emphasizes gold’s projected performance relative to stocks more than any single price target.
“Forecasts depend on assumptions, and those assumptions can change,” Diehl says. “The comparison offers a framework for considering possible outcomes rather than a timetable for guaranteed gains.”
The practical question is whether your savings depend too heavily on one outcome—and whether your allocation reflects the risks you’re willing to accept.
Your goals should shape the mix.
Diehl also revisits the traditional 60/40 allocation of stocks and bonds, arguing that gold merits a larger place in the discussion.
He acknowledges that different people have different needs. Someone relying on a portfolio for income may approach an allocation differently from someone primarily seeking growth.
“That makes diversification a personal consideration. Your time horizon, income needs, existing holdings, and comfort with market swings all matter,” says Diehl.
Looking toward 2030, Diehl’s message is to examine those choices deliberately. Understanding what you own—and what could affect it—can help you consider whether physical gold belongs in your plans.
To explore how physical gold may help you hedge against economic uncertainty, call U.S. Money Reserve at (866) 646-8465.
