Gold’s record-setting rally has taken a breather.
After reaching an all-time high in January, the price of gold pulled back sharply, falling by as much as 30%. For those who've watched gold's rapid climb over the past two years, the reversal raises an obvious question: Is the rally over—or has the pullback created another opportunity to buy?
Philip N. Diehl, 35th Director of the U.S. Mint and President of U.S. Money Reserve, believes the longer-term case for gold remains strong.
“I’m very confident about that,” Diehl said on a recent episode of U.S. Money Reserve’s America’s Gold Authority® podcast, pointing to forecasts from independent analysts and major financial institutions.
Here’s why Diehl believes gold’s recent decline may look very different when viewed through a longer-term lens.
Gold’s pullback followed an extraordinary run
Before considering where gold could go next, it helps to remember how it got here.
Gold prices doubled between November 2023 and November 2025. The rally then accelerated dramatically through January, making some type of correction increasingly likely.
That pullback has brought gold back toward prices last seen in late 2025.
For people who watched the rally from the sidelines, Diehl believes that could be significant.
“If you look back and kick yourself because you didn’t buy gold during that big run-up—or you didn’t buy more gold—this is your second chance,”
But the argument for buying the dip isn’t based solely on the assumption that gold will rebound. A range of analysts are forecasting higher prices through the end of 2026.
Where could gold go by the end of 2026?
In the podcast, Diehl examined year-end gold price forecasts from eight major banks.
At the time the forecasts were compiled, gold was trading just above $4,000/oz. The eight forecasts ranged from $4,500–$6,200/oz. by the end of the year—representing potential increases of approximately 11%–53% from that baseline.
Diehl contrasted that outlook with analysts’ expectations for stocks. According to the figures presented in the podcast, stock prices were expected to rise approximately 7.7% over the same period.
That comparison matters because one concern people may have about adding gold is what they could potentially give up elsewhere.
Stocks have performed strongly in recent years. Moving a portion of a portfolio away from stocks can feel like walking away from future growth.
But Diehl argues that the forecasts challenge the idea that owning more gold necessarily means sacrificing growth potential.
And for people who own physical gold as a long-term asset rather than a short-term trade, the outlook beyond 2026 may be even more important.
What are analysts forecasting for gold through 2030?
When Diehl extended his analysis to 2030, he found another substantial gap between expectations for gold and stocks.
The forecasts discussed on the podcast include gold price targets reaching as high as $10,000/oz. by 2030. Across the forecasts Diehl reviewed, the average projected increase for gold was approximately 108%, compared with approximately 64% for the S&P 500.
Of course, forecasts are not guarantees.
Diehl emphasized that point himself, cautioning against anyone who claims certainty about where an asset’s price is headed.
“There is no such thing as certainty in this business,” he said. Instead, he looks for confidence supported by data and a broad cross-section of independent analysis.
Several economic forces could help explain why analysts remain bullish on gold.
Why could gold prices continue to rise?
Diehl points to a combination of economic and geopolitical pressures that could continue supporting demand for gold.
Inflation remains a concern, particularly if it coincides with weakening economic growth. That combination can lead to stagflation, an environment in which policymakers face the difficult task of addressing rising prices without further weakening the economy.
At the same time, geopolitical uncertainty remains elevated. Conflicts in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine continue to create instability, while government debt remains high in the United States and around the world.
Interest rates could also play an important role. Diehl believes shifting expectations around Federal Reserve policy could become a catalyst for gold prices, noting that interest-rate expectations have repeatedly influenced gold throughout its recent rally.
Watch the Podcast A House Divided: The Fed’s Growing Internal ConflictTaken together, these conditions help explain why many analysts remain optimistic about gold even after its recent correction.
But price appreciation is only part of gold’s potential role in a portfolio.
What happens to gold during a recession?
Concerns about a weakening economy make another question especially relevant: How has gold historically performed during recessions?
Diehl looked at three downturns over roughly the past quarter-century:
- The recession associated with the dot-com crash (2001)
- The Great Recession (2007–2009)
- The pandemic-era recession (2020)
According to the data presented on the podcast, gold prices remained positive during all three periods while stock prices declined. Diehl said the same general pattern can be observed during other major crises when looking further back in history.
That historical performance highlights one reason people may choose to own gold even when stocks are performing well.
Gold can provide diversification beyond traditional paper-based financial assets—and may behave differently when economic conditions change. That’s one reason physical gold also continues to play an important role in central bank reserves around the world.
Related Article Why the world’s central banks still choose physical gold over ETFsIs the traditional 60/40 portfolio due for a rethink?
For decades, a portfolio consisting of 60% stocks and 40% bonds has been a common approach to balancing growth and stability.
Diehl argues that today’s economic environment gives people reason to reconsider that formula.
One alternative he discusses is a 60/20/20 portfolio: 60% stocks, 20% bonds, and 20% gold.
According to the 20-year comparison cited in the podcast, a portfolio using that allocation outperformed a traditional 60/40 stock-and-bond portfolio while also experiencing lower risk over the period studied. Those two decades included dramatically different environments: the Great Recession, the pandemic recession, periods of inflation, a gold bear market, a gold bull market, and major stock-market gains.
For Diehl, that history challenges a persistent misconception about gold: that allocating money to physical gold necessarily means sacrificing returns.
His recommendation is not to make decisions based on a single price move. Instead, people should examine their overall portfolio and consider whether their current mix of assets is appropriate for what may lie ahead.
Related Article Portfolio Risk After 60: A Guide to Stability in RetirementIs now the time to buy gold?
No one knows exactly where gold will trade next month, next year, or in 2030.
What we do know is that gold’s recent pullback comes after an extraordinary multiyear rally—and at a time when a range of analysts continue to forecast higher prices.
Meanwhile, many of the forces that have helped support gold remain in place: inflation concerns, economic uncertainty, geopolitical conflict, high government debt, and questions about the future path of interest rates.
For people who have been waiting for gold prices to come down before buying, the recent correction may provide an opportunity to take another look.
As Diehl puts it, physical gold is generally not about trying to perfectly time the market. For many buyers, it’s about owning an asset for the long term—and preparing a portfolio for economic conditions that can be difficult to predict.
Questions? Never hesitate to reach out to a U.S. Money Reserve Account Executive. Call (866) 646-8465, and we'll be happy to help.
