The shutdown is over, but it left a data hole in the country’s economic dashboard. Key October reports on hiring and inflation may never be released, leaving policymakers and the public without their usual guideposts. Unofficial data from private sources points to a cooling job market that was already weakening before the government closed. ADP’s high-frequency readings show that private employers cut more than 11,000 jobs per week in late October, erasing the modest gains seen earlier in the month.
Layoff announcements reinforce that pattern. Employment services firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported more than 153,000 planned job cuts in October, the highest for that month in two decades. Many companies, especially in the technology sector, are reshaping their staffing during the AI surge. Goldman Sachs estimates the missing October jobs report would likely show a drop of about 50,000 positions. Even before the shutdown, momentum had slowed. August saw unemployment rise to 4.3%, with only 22,000 new roles added.
Now that federal agencies are back online, officials are preparing to release September’s data, but October remains a blind spot. That gap makes it harder for businesses, families, and the Federal Reserve to judge where the economy is headed. Markets have already swung as expectations for December interest rate cuts shift. Without clear indicators, the risks of hesitation, slower spending, and uneven growth are rising heading into the end of the year.
In such an uncertain environment, consumers may turn toward safe-haven assets like physical gold for protection. Gold prices have climbed back above $4,100/oz. after their late-October dip, supported by a weaker dollar, lower real yields, and strong demand from central banks. Major banks expect the precious metal to keep advancing, with some projecting that prices could approach $5,000/oz. in the next two years. As the labor picture stays cloudy, gold may continue to gain ground while the economy works through a period of uncertainty.
