Is A Recession Coming? 3 Surefire Signs It May Be Coming U.S. Money Reserve Market Insights

blue background with white text that says "three recession indicators" next to Patrick Brunson holding an informational book
May 3, 2018

In this episode of Daily Market Insights, Patrick talks about factors such as oil prices, the housing market, and bond yields that typically lead up to a recession.

Is A Recession Coming? 3 Surefire Signs It May Be Coming- Video Transcription

Patrick Brunson:               00:00

Good morning. Thank you for tuning in to daily market insights. we've actually had a lot of things take place throughout the month of April. There's been a number of things that are being talked about in regards to the stock market. We're seeing a lot of things happen in regards to the oil market and some other areas, and one of the big talks in the news is interest rates going up and inflation. And so what we've been really paying close attention to is the factors that lead up to a recession. Our economic cycle shows that we typically go into a recession every seven to eight years and recessions aren't all that bad. I know that the media and the government paints recessions to be a bad thing, but technically they're good for the markets. Just like anything else. You can't go up in a straight line all the time.

Patrick Brunson:               00:49

Recessions bring asset prices back down to where they naturally should be so people can start buying in again and we can start to move up naturally again. However, we're not seeing that. Every time we get closer to seeing a recession, we seem to have problems with allowing it to happen and they implement tools to push it off. The problem is, when you push a recession off, it turns into a big fat, ugly bubble. So there's three things that typically start to heat up right before a recession. You have the oil price, the oil market, you have the housing market, and then you have bond yields. Well, we're starting to see the oil prices start to move up pretty consistently week after week. On top of that, really starting to see interest rates go up. The feds talking about possibly raising interest rates a lot quicker than they had anticipated.

Patrick Brunson:               01:42

In addition to that, we're also starting to see the housing market heat up, so there's a lot of analysts coming out talking about how we could see a recession within the next 12 to 18 months before the next election. The problem is, is that we have to go through two quarters of negative economic growth before the government will actually come out and officially name that the fact that we're in a recession. That means we have to go through six months of negative economic growth in losses on our assets before the government will even tell us that we're in a recession. So you have to be able to recognize these things early on and every single sign that points to a recession, they're all screaming alarms right now. So we have to start preparing obviously, and we have to start moving money. The thing is is you've got to make sure you recognize the signs yourself and make the decision to move on your own because your banker and your broker is not going to tell you to do so.

Patrick Brunson:               02:39

Most of the time they're just going to tell you to sit tight, everything's gonna be just fine, whatever goes down, it's going to go back up. But at the end of the day, it doesn't make sense to let your money sit in an area where it's just going to lose value waiting for it to go back up. You need to insure it and make sure that you have a position that's going to hedge that bet. With that said, you can get your report of the fiscal states of America, this will give you an idea of what's happening in your state from an economic standpoint and where your state currently sits financially especially if you're a retiree and you're living off of some sort of government subsidy. So pick up your report by clicking on the link or calling the number below. If you have any questions, please post them in the comment section below and we'll address those questions as the listed. As for today, that's all. Thank you for tuning in to daily market insights.


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