Gold enters 2026 with strong momentum after a historic 2025 rally in which prices climbed as much as 70%, the metal’s strongest annual gain since 1979. Analysts largely agree that the advance was driven by structural pressures that remain in place, including elevated global debt, persistent inflation risk, policy uncertainty, and a weakening U.S. dollar. Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates described last year’s surge as a signal of declining purchasing power in fiat currencies, noting that equity performance looks markedly weaker when measured against gold rather than dollars.
Major banks expect gold prices to continue rising in 2026, though at a slower pace than in 2025. Goldman Sachs forecasts gold reaching $4,900/oz. by December 2026, citing broader portfolio diversification and continued demand. ING expects prices to trade between $4,500/oz. and $4,700/oz., with potential upside toward $5,000/oz. if current macroeconomic conditions persist. MKS Pamp’s Nicky Shiels offered one of the most positive calls at $5,400/oz. by the end of 2026, arguing that markets have consistently underestimated the scale of currency debasement.
Central bank accumulation remains another major force behind these forecasts. JPMorgan expects roughly 755 metric tons of gold purchases in 2026, keeping official demand near record levels. Barron’s reports that foreign governments now hold more gold than U.S. Treasuries as a percentage of total reserves, reflecting a shift away from dollar-based assets amid geopolitical risk and financial uncertainty. With U.S. inflation expected to remain above 3% for much of the year and interest rates projected to drift lower, analysts see limited downside for gold, even if price swings increase, reinforcing expectations for further gains in 2026.
