So, nothing seems to have changed as a result of the budget and debt crisis. We simply kicked the can into next year. While the GOP took a good deal of self-inflicted damage in the standoff, this was not a victory for Democrats in terms of achieving any of their budget objectives. The deep budget cuts under sequestration remain in place and will deepen with more cuts in January. All is as it was before. But at a deeper level, there are, in fact, two significant consequences of this fiasco, having to do with the impact on the GOP and on markets in general.
In the weeks leading up to the debt crisis in 2011, gold rose $400 an ounce to hit its nominal all-time peak of $1,895. The 2011 debt crisis was the one in which we came so close to defaulting on our debts that rating agencies downgraded the nation’s credit score. But it was good for gold. As the crisis approached, gold rose spectacularly. After the crisis was resolved, it fell dramatically but retained a portion of the gain. Can we expect a similar pattern as the current debt limit standoff progresses?