Debt Limit Resolution: As the Dust Settles

So, nothing seems to have changed as a result of the budget and debt crisis. We simply kicked the can into next year. While the GOP took a good deal of self-inflicted damage in the standoff, this was not a victory for Democrats in terms of achieving any of their budget objectives. The deep budget cuts under sequestration remain in place and will deepen with more cuts in January. All is as it was before. But at a deeper level, there are, in fact, two significant consequences of this fiasco, having to do with the impact on the GOP and on markets in general.

Debt Limit Resolution: As the Dust SettlesDetails

Gold and the Debt Crisis

In the weeks leading up to the debt crisis in 2011, gold rose $400 an ounce to hit its nominal all-time peak of $1,895. The 2011 debt crisis was the one in which we came so close to defaulting on our debts that rating agencies downgraded the nation’s credit score. But it was good for gold. As the crisis approached, gold rose spectacularly. After the crisis was resolved, it fell dramatically but retained a portion of the gain. Can we expect a similar pattern as the current debt limit standoff progresses?

Gold and the Debt CrisisDetails

Wall Street Waits on Washington

An edited version of this post appeared on Institutional Investor’s Unconventional Wisdom blog.  Three questions pending in Washington are poised to roil markets: When will the Federal Reserve taper quantitative easing? When will the government shutdown end? and Will Congress fail to raise the debt limit? How these issues play out is likely to have lasting…

Wall Street Waits on WashingtonDetails

Wealth Insurance

There is a fundamental misunderstanding of the role of physical gold in a balanced financial portfolio. The bull market of the 2000s has led many to think of gold as another way to increase wealth through price appreciation. This is mistaken. First and foremost, physical gold is insurance. When you think about buying insurance, you don’t think about a return on your investment. You think about protection against the unexpected. Gold’s core value proposition is as wealth protection when the rest of your portfolio is going down the tubes. Price appreciation in good times, if and when it occurs, is a bonus.

Wealth InsuranceDetails