Volatility is inevitable considering the importance of QE3 to the course of both the U.S. and world economy, but it has been amplified by a misunderstanding of statements by Chairman Bernanke and other members of the Fed about how they’ll make decisions to taper. I’ll offer an interpretation in this post.
How and When the Fed Will Decide to Taper QE3DetailsThis is the first in a series of posts in which I’ll discuss the supply and demand forces that will drive the next bull market in gold. I’ll start by addressing the supply side of the equation. The market receives gold from four sources: mining, recycling of jewelry, sales by central banks, and sales by…
Mine Production and the Next Bull Market in GoldDetailsRead Part I In my last post I painted a dystopian future for the NFL as as a metaphor for our current banking system. You might take a look at it before proceeding. It can’t really be THAT bad. The stars of today’s too-big-to-fail (TBTF) banks are the elite financial product innovators and traders who earn huge…
Gold, TBTF Banks and the NFL- Part IIDetailsA reader recently asked why I have an axe to grind for the big banks and how it has anything to do with gold. I’ll explain with a sports metaphor. Imagine the NFL in a dystopian future The major stars are in an unrestrained PED (performance-enhancing drug) arms race, raising their incomes to astronomical levels.…
Gold, TBTF Banks and the NFL- Part IDetailsIn my last post, I described how Goldman Sachs used its position in aluminum warehousing to manipulate prices, and I posed the question, What can we learn about the gold market from Goldman’s actions in aluminum? Let’s look at SPDR Gold, the largest gold ETF in the world. At the center of SPDR Gold is HSBC,…
Would Those Nice Bankers Really Manipulate Gold Prices?DetailsTwo weeks ago I wrote about why gold is making a rally. In that post I discuss Goldman Sachs’s manipulation of prices in the aluminum market and what it tells us about how gold ETFs might be influencing the gold market in a similar way. The Goldman story is developing quickly so it’s worth taking another look…
Gold and the Aluminum Price Manipulation ScandalDetailsThe U.S. Department of Labor released the latest unemployment numbers on Friday, as it does the first Friday of every month. I’ll be writing a short post after each of these releases to explain what they mean for gold prices. Why? Because monthly unemployment rates will have a significant short-term effect on gold prices over the next several…
Why Unemployment Matters for GoldDetailsI’m still boggled by the Fed’s June economic forecast, the one that led analysts to conclude the Fed would begin winding down QE3 this fall. Markets around the world, including the gold market, reacted so negatively to this news that Chairman Bernanke was forced to give reassurances that an end to QE3 was not imminent. This is a very…
Five Reasons the Fed Is Wrong About the Economy... AgainDetailsThis weekend’s NY Times article about Goldman Sachs cornering the aluminum warehousing market has generated heated speculation about the lending practices of big banks that warehouse gold. This matter draws great interest because such lending practices could lead to delivery obligations rising to levels significantly higher than gold stocks can support. Moreover, because these lending arrangements…
Why Is Gold Rallying?DetailsFed Chairman Ben Bernanke dissed gold in a Senate Banking Committee hearing yesterday. There’s nothing surprising in that — he’s stated his views on gold before. But it’s still interesting to take a look at what he said. “No one really understands gold prices,” said the Fed chairman with a seemingly straight face. Hmmm. There seem…
Why Does Ben Bernanke Hate Gold?DetailsI was in New York last week to meet with reporters who cover the gold market. Twice I was asked about the “doom and gloom” messages commonly used to sell physical gold. I have two thoughts on that question. Gold sellers know that many of their most reliable buyers view gold as the only secure…
Doom, Gloom and GoldDetailsI’ve promised to explain why I think gold is on the verge of another bull run. As I’ve said in my post On Gold and Precious Metals, I’m not in the business of making short-term predictions of gold prices. I consider making short-term price predictions to be a fool’s errand because price movements are so dependent…
Six Reasons Gold Is Set for a New Bull RunDetails
