A bear market is generally considered to be a period in which stock prices fall by 20 percent or more and features a self-sustaining sell-off. It’s often accompanied by widespread pessimism and losses across all of the broad market indexes—like the Dow, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq. But that’s not exactly what we’re experiencing…
Is a Rolling Bear the Most Unnerving Spectacle on Wall Street?Details“A significant slowdown or even recession is coming sooner or later, and it’s probably coming sooner than you think. It always does,” writes Fortune editor-at-large, Geoff Colvin. Surprised by Colvin’s warning? You probably aren’t alone. On the surface, the U.S. economy looks strong. It may soon be the longest economic expansion in history. Yes, the…
How Bad Will the Next Recession Be?DetailsWhen it comes to downturns in the economy, is hindsight only 20/20—or can you protect your assets by adjusting your allocations based upon the economic cycle? Wait—there’s an economic cycle? There is, indeed, and the leading authority on the patterns, fluctuations, and duration of the cycle is the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Analysts…
Expansion, Peak, Contraction, and Trough. What’s the Economic Cycle Telling Us?DetailsThere was a time when Sears, Roebuck and Company was as ingrained in the American psyche as baseball, pickup trucks, and fireworks. It was where many U.S. consumers went to get a washer and dryer, a new bicycle, work jeans—or, as Billy Joel said in his 1977 song “Scenes from an Italian Restaurant,” “a couple…
Sears is Bankrupt. Now What?DetailsMany are saying it: “The Fed will cause the next crash!” But what do they mean, and how plausible is it? The Fed is America’s central bank, and by their own definition, their role is to provide the nation with a “safer, more flexible, and more stable monetary and financial system.” Established back in 1913…
The Fed’s High-Wire ActDetailsNothing comes into existence without a force to create it. Our financial world and its many ups and downs is no exception to this rule. Sure, current U.S. economic expansion is on a roll. “Goldman Sachs says there’s a 90 percent chance this expansion will break the prior record set during the 1990s tech boom…
Crisis Ahead? These Mistakes Could Trigger the Next Financial CrisisDetailsIt has been 10 years since the employees of Lehman Brothers stepped out onto Sixth Avenue carrying cardboard boxes and became the enduring symbol of America’s largest bankruptcy. What followed, as they say, is history. Markets collapsed, trillions in wealth evaporated, and big, splashy investment firms fell like dominoes. A decade later, former British Prime…
Another Economic Crisis? Here’s Why We’re Not ReadyDetails“There was the greatest bubble I’ve ever seen in my life…. The entire American public eventually was caught up in a belief that housing prices could not fall dramatically.” Warren Buffett, testifying before the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, 2010 Ten years ago, we were deep in the weeds of the Great Recession when American homeowners saw…
Housing Bubble 2 and the Fog of EuphoriaDetailsAccording to the Baker Library Historical Collection at Harvard Business School, the three Lehman brothers, Henry, Emanuel, and Mayer, emigrated from Germany in the 1840s and opened up a dry goods store in Montgomery, Alabama. During this time, cotton was a vital and high valuation crop and the brothers quickly began accepting raw cotton in…
The Match and the Powder Keg: The Fall of Lehman Brothers 10 Years LaterDetailsEvery year in July, the festival of San Fermín is held in Pamplona, Spain. San Fermin is the co-patron saint of Navarre who was martyred at the age of 31 and apparently dragged through the streets by a bull. Despite the fact that it was likely Saint Saturninus who actually met his fate in this…
There’s a Reason We Run from BullsDetailsIt’s somewhat fitting that the future of global monetary policy and the path of U.S. interest rates will be discussed in a place renowned for the Million Dollar Cowboy Bar complete with saddle stools, Wyoming Whiskey, and thousands of Morgan Silver Dollars embedded into the bar top. The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium is a yearly…
An Aging Bull and a Surging Dollar: High Stakes at Jackson HoleDetailsThe only certain things in life are death, taxes, and, one could argue, another financial downturn. Recessions are inevitable. Some economists believe they’re a natural outgrowth of business cycles. Others maintain that booms and busts reflect the inherent cadence of capitalism and a market economy. Still others assert that downturns represent an outgrowth of excess…
When—Not If—is the Next Economic Crisis?Details
